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An almost periodic Ross-Macdonald model with structured vector population in a patchy environment.
Journal of Mathematical Biology ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2019-10-26 , DOI: 10.1007/s00285-019-01443-3
Bin-Guo Wang 1 , Lizhong Qiang 1 , Zhi-Cheng Wang 1
Affiliation  

An almost periodic Ross-Macdonald model with age structure for the vector population in a patchy environment is considered. The basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] for this model is derived and a threshold-type result on its global dynamics in terms of [Formula: see text] is established. It is shown that the disease is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text], while the disease will die out if [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulations show that the biting rate greatly affects the disease transmission, and human migration sometimes could reduce the transmission risk. We further obtain a condition numerically to determine whether a control strategy on migration is necessary. Moreover, numerical results indicate that prolonging the length of maturation period of vector is beneficial to the disease control, and the threshold length of the maturation period for disease outbreak can be computed. Finally, the comparison between the almost periodic and periodic models shows that the periodic model may overestimate or underestimate the disease transmission risk.

中文翻译:

在斑驳环境中具有结构化向量种群的几乎周期性的Ross-Macdonald模型。

考虑了斑驳环境中具有种群年龄结构的几乎周期性的Ross-Macdonald模型。推导了该模型的基本复制率[公式:参见文字],并根据[公式:参见文字]建立了其整体动力学的阈值类型结果。结果表明,如果[公式:参见文本],该疾病是统一持续的;而如果[公式:参见文本],该疾病将消亡。数值模拟表明,咬合率极大地影响了疾病的传播,人类迁徙有时可以降低传播的风险。我们进一步从数值上获得一个条件,以确定是否需要针对迁移的控制策略。而且,数值结果表明,延长载体成熟期的长度有利于疾病的防治,可以计算出疾病爆发的成熟期的阈值长度。最后,几乎周期模型和周期模型之间的比较表明,周期模型可能高估或低估了疾病传播的风险。
更新日期:2019-11-01
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