Research shows that the association between adverse climate conditions and human migration is heterogeneous. One reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of populations to climate change. This includes highly vulnerable, “trapped” populations that are too poor to migrate given deep and persistent poverty, the financial costs of migrating, and the erosion of already fragile economic livelihoods under climate change. Another reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of places. However, despite the growing list of studies showing that the climate-migration relationship clearly varies across places, there is surprisingly little research on the characteristics of places themselves that trap, or immobilize, populations. Accordingly, we provide the first account of the “holding power” of places in the association between adverse climate conditions and migration flows among 55 districts in Zambia in 2000 and 2010. Methodologically, we combine high-resolution climate information with aggregated census micro data to estimate gravity models of inter-district migration flows. Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate-related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Planners and policy makers need to recognize the holding power of places that can trap populations and develop programs to support in situ adaptation and to facilitate migration to avoid humanitarian emergencies.

中文翻译：

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将被困人口安置到位：赞比亚的气候变化和跨区移民流动。


研究表明，不利的气候条件与人类迁徙之间的关联是异质的。造成这种异质性的原因之一是人口对气候变化的脆弱性不同。这包括高度脆弱、“受困”的人口，他们由于长期贫困、移民的经济成本以及气候变化对本已脆弱的经济生计的侵蚀而太穷而无法移民。造成这种异质性的另一个原因是各地的脆弱性不同。然而，尽管越来越多的研究表明气候与移民的关系在不同地点之间存在明显差异，但令人惊讶的是，对那些困住或固定人口的地点本身特征的研究却很少。因此，我们首次说明了 2000 年和 2010 年赞比亚 55 个地区恶劣气候条件与移民流动之间的关联性。在方法上，我们将高分辨率气候信息与汇总的人口普查微观数据相结合，估计跨区移民流动的重力模型。结果显示，不利的气候条件与移民之间的关联仅对富裕的移民输出地区呈正相关。相比之下，贫困地区的特点是与气候相关的流动性较差。然而，我们的研究结果表明，进入移民网络可以在最贫困地区实现与气候相关的流动，这表明了克服流动限制的可行途径。规划者和政策制定者需要认识到可能困住人口的地方的控制力，并制定计划以支持就地适应并促进移民以避免人道主义紧急情况。