"The completed demographic transitions in industrialized countries inspired a model which underlies many well-meant policies affecting the Third World. However, the model's postulate--modernization and prosperity will lower fertility rates--has exacerbated rather than helped control worldwide population growth and the associated environmental degradation. Here we show that perceived economic opportunity leads to raising family size targets and to discarding elements of traditional cultures which formerly held fertility rates in check. Conversely, fertility rates fall when limits are recognized. These observations imply that a liberal immigration policy and large-scale foreign aid are counterproductive for restoring balance between population size and carrying capacity."

中文翻译：

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重新审视人口转变：对外援助和美国移民政策的教训

“工业化国家完成的人口转变激发了一个模型，该模型是许多影响第三世界的善意政策的基础。然而，该模型的假设——现代化和繁荣将降低生育率——加剧而不是帮助控制全球人口增长和相关的环境退化。在这里，我们表明，感知到的经济机会导致提高家庭规模目标，并丢弃以前控制生育率的传统文化元素。相反，当限制得到承认时，生育率下降。这些观察结果意味着自由的移民政策大规模的对外援助对恢复人口规模和承载能力之间的平衡适得其反。”