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Understanding the Efficiency of Splenic Hemangiosarcoma Diagnosis Using Monte Carlo Simulations.
Veterinary Pathology ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2019-08-20 , DOI: 10.1177/0300985819868732
Eric J Herman 1 , Adam W Stern 2 , Richard J Fox 3 , Michael J Dark 2, 4
Affiliation  

Hemangiosarcoma is a common neoplasm of the spleen in older dogs. However, diagnosis is complicated by necrosis and hemorrhage, which can mimic a number of benign processes. Currently, there is no consensus about the number of sections pathologists should examine to rule out hemangiosarcoma. To answer this question, we examined 413 histopathologic sections from 50 cases of canine hemangiosarcoma (mean: 8.1 sections per case; range, 5-14). Each section had the presence or absence of hemangiosarcoma determined by 2 board-certified anatomic pathologists. Then, 100 Monte Carlo simulations were performed, randomly selecting sections from each case 10 000 times and the results averaged. These simulations suggest that examination of 5 sections from a spleen with hemangiosarcoma yields a 95.02% chance of diagnosing hemangiosarcoma, while examination of 10 sections yields a 98.59% chance of diagnosis when hemangiosarcoma is in fact present. The data emphasize the need to submit the entire spleen for histopathologic examination in suspected cases of hemangiosarcoma and suggest that 5 sections obtained by a trained individual are likely sufficient for diagnosis.

中文翻译:

使用蒙特卡洛模拟了解脾脏血管肉瘤诊断的效率。

血管肉瘤是老年犬的脾脏常见肿瘤。然而,坏死和出血使诊断变得复杂,可以模拟许多良性过程。目前,对于病理学家应检查以排除血管肉瘤的切片数量尚无共识。为了回答这个问题,我们检查了50例犬血管肉瘤的413个组织病理切片(平均:每例8.1切片;范围5-14)。每个切片均由两名经董事会认证的解剖病理学家确定是否存在血管肉瘤。然后,进行了100次蒙特卡洛模拟,从每种情况中随机选择了1万次,然后取平均结果。这些模拟结果表明,对脾脏血管肉瘤的5个切片进行检查可得出诊断血管肉瘤的机会为95.02%,当实际上存在血管肉瘤时,检查10个切片可得到98.59%的诊断机会。数据强调在疑似血管肉瘤病例中需要将整个脾脏进行组织病理学检查,并建议由受过训练的人获得的5个切片可能足以进行诊断。
更新日期:2019-11-01
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