OBJECTIVES Proponents of criminogenic risk assessment have called for its widespread expansion throughout the criminal justice system. Its success in predicting recidivism is taken as evidence that criminogenic risks tap into the causes of criminal behavior, and that targeting these factors can reduce correctional supervision rates and even prevent crime. This study challenges these assertions, by testing the implicit assumption that populations in which recidivism risk factors were identified are interchangeable with populations experiencing the onset/duration of exposure to the criminal justice system. HYPOTHESES Exposure to the criminal justice system increases some of the risk factors used to predict recidivism; therefore, risk factors for recidivism and onset/duration of exposure to the criminal justice system are not interchangeable. METHOD Secondary analysis of data from 503 boys followed prior to first arrest through early adulthood. Inverse-probability-of-exposure-weighted marginal structural models and fixed effects models were employed to test whether arrests and convictions increase antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peers. RESULTS Being arrested or convicted resulted in subsequently higher levels of antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peers. Risks for recidivism, which include the effect of exposure to the criminal justice system, are not identical to the risks of exposure to the criminal justice system. CONCLUSIONS Results caution against the uncritical expansion of criminogenic risk assessment from community corrections to policing, pretrial, and sentencing. Researchers and policymakers should engage with the social conditions that put people at risk of criminogenic risks and more cautiously communicate the scope of reform that criminogenic risk assessment can deliver. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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犯罪或定罪？测试扩大犯罪风险评估的假设。


目标 犯罪风险评估的支持者呼吁将其广泛扩展至整个刑事司法系统。它在预测累犯方面的成功证明，犯罪风险涉及犯罪行为的原因，而针对这些因素可以降低惩教监督率，甚至预防犯罪。本研究通过测试隐含的假设来挑战这些断言，即确定累犯风险因素的人群与经历刑事司法系统暴露/持续时间的人群可以互换。假设 接触刑事司法系统会增加一些用于预测累犯的风险因素；因此，累犯的风险因素和刑事司法系统的开始/持续时间不能互换。方法 对 503 名男孩从首次被捕到成年早期的数据进行二次分析。采用逆暴露概率加权边际结构模型和固定效应模型来测试逮捕和定罪是否会增加反社会态度、行为和同龄人。结果 被捕或定罪会导致随后出现更高水平的反社会态度、行为和同龄人。累犯风险（包括暴露于刑事司法系统的影响）与暴露于刑事司法系统的风险不同。结论 结果警告不要不加批判地将犯罪风险评估从社区惩教扩展到治安、审前和量刑。 研究人员和政策制定者应关注使人们面临犯罪风险的社会条件，并更加谨慎地传达犯罪风险评估可以提供的改革范围。 （PsycINFO 数据库记录 (c) 2019 APA，保留所有权利）。