Large predators can significantly impact livestock industries. In Australia, wild dogs (Canis lupus familiaris, Canis lupus dingo, and hybrids) cause economic losses of more than AUD$40M annually. Landscape-scale exclusion fencing coupled with lethal techniques is a widely practiced control method. In Western Australia, the State Barrier Fence encompasses approximately 260,000km2 of predominantly agricultural land, but its effectiveness in preventing wild dogs from entering the agricultural region is difficult to evaluate. We conducted a management strategy evaluation (MSE) based on spatially-explicit population models to forecast the effects of upgrades to the Western Australian State Barrier Fence and several control scenarios varying in intensity and spatial extent on wild dog populations in southwest Western Australia. The model results indicate that populations of wild dogs on both sides of the State Barrier Fence are self-sustaining and current control practices are not sufficient to effectively reduce their abundance in the agricultural region. Only when a combination of control techniques is applied on a large scale, intensively and continuously are wild dog numbers effectively controlled. This study identifies the requirement for addressing extant populations of predators within fenced areas to meet the objective of preventing wild dog expansion. This objective is only achieved when control is applied to the whole area where wild dogs are currently present within the fence plus an additional buffer of ~20 km. Our modelling focused on the use of baiting, trapping and shooting; however, we acknowledge that additional tools may also be applied. Finally, we recommend that a cost-benefit analysis be performed to evaluate the economic viability of an integrated control strategy.

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用于评估西澳大利亚野狗控制策略的空间显式模型

大型食肉动物会对畜牧业产生重大影响。在澳大利亚，野狗（犬类狼疮、犬类狼疮和杂种犬）每年造成的经济损失超过 4000 万澳元。景观尺度排除围栏与致命技术相结合是一种广泛采用的控制方法。在西澳大利亚州，州屏障围栏包括大约 260,000 平方公里的主要农业用地，但其在防止野狗进入农业区方面的有效性难以评估。我们基于空间显式种群模型进行了管理策略评估 (MSE)，以预测升级西澳大利亚州屏障的影响以及几种强度和空间范围不同的控制方案对西澳大利亚西南部野狗种群的影响。模型结果表明，国家围栏两侧的野狗种群是自给自足的，目前的控制措施不足以有效地减少它们在农业区的数量。只有大规模、集中、持续地应用综合防治技术，才能有效控制野狗数量。这项研究确定了解决围栏区域内现存捕食者种群的需求，以满足防止野狗扩张的目标。仅当对围栏内目前存在野狗的整个区域加上约 20 公里的额外缓冲区进行控制时，才能实现这一目标。我们的造型侧重于诱饵、诱捕和射击的使用；但是，我们承认也可以应用其他工具。最后，