The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.

中文翻译：

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因气候变化而改变作物：基于代理的模拟虚拟泰国南荣

针对泰国东北部村庄发现的系统类型，探索了扩展气候变异对农业土地利用的影响。为 Nang Rong 区开发的基于代理的模型用于模拟分配给茉莉花米、重米、木薯和甘蔗的土地。模型中的土地利用选择取决于可能的经济结果，但包括依赖于家庭人口的有限理性元素。社会经济动态是系统内生的，而气候变化被添加为外生驱动因素。村庄以许多不同的方式改变了他们的农业努力。大多数村庄减少了耕地面积，主要是减少了茉莉花水稻，但其他村庄没有。对气候变化的反应的变化表明这种类型的系统对初始条件和路径依赖的潜在敏感性。我们的虚拟村庄与该地区的真实村庄之间的差异表明有限理性的影响和对模型应用的限制。