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Epidemiological models for invasion and persistence of pathogens.
Annual Review of Phytopathology ( IF 9.1 ) Pub Date : 2008-01-01 , DOI: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.45.062806.094357
Christopher A Gilligan 1 , Frank van den Bosch
Affiliation  

Motivated by questions such as "Why do some diseases take off, while others die out?" and "How can we optimize the deployment of control methods," we introduce simple epidemiological concepts for the invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. An overarching modeling framework is then presented that can be used to analyze disease invasion and persistence at a range of scales from the microscopic to the regional. Criteria for invasion and persistence are introduced, initially for simple models of epidemics, and then for models with greater biological realism. Some ways in which epidemiological models are used to identify optimal strategies for the control of disease are discussed. Particular attention is given to the spatial structure of host populations and to the role of chance events in determining invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. Finally, three brief case studies are used to illustrate the practical applications of epidemiological theory to understand invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. These comprise long-term predictions for the persistence and control of Dutch elm disease; identification of methods to manage the spread of rhizomania on sugar beet in the U.K. by matching the scale of control with the spatial and temporal scales of the disease; and analysis of evolutionary change in virus control to identify risks of inadvertent selection for damaging virus strains.

中文翻译:

病原体入侵和持续存在的流行病学模型。

受到诸如“为什么有些疾病会流行,而另一些疾病会消亡?”等问题的启发。和“我们如何优化控制方法的部署”,我们介绍了植物病原体入侵和持续存在的简单流行病学概念。然后提出了一个总体建模框架,可用于在从微观到区域的一系列尺度上分析疾病的侵袭和持续性。引入了入侵和持久性的标准,最初是针对简单的流行病模型,然后是具有更大生物现实主义的模型。讨论了使用流行病学模型来确定控制疾病的最佳策略的一些方法。特别注意宿主种群的空间结构和偶然事件在确定植物病原体入侵和持久性方面的作用。最后,三个简短的案例研究用于说明流行病学理论在理解植物病原体入侵和持久性方面的实际应用。这些包括对荷兰榆树病害的持久性和控制的长期预测;通过将控制规模与疾病的时空尺度相匹配,确定管理英国甜菜上根瘤菌传播的方法;并分析病毒控制的进化变化,以确定无意中选择破坏性病毒株的风险。三个简短的案例研究用于说明流行病学理论在理解植物病原体入侵和持久性方面的实际应用。这些包括对荷兰榆树病害的持久性和控制的长期预测;通过将控制规模与疾病的空间和时间尺度相匹配,确定管理英国甜菜根瘤菌传播的方法;并分析病毒控制的进化变化,以确定无意中选择破坏性病毒株的风险。三个简短的案例研究用于说明流行病学理论在理解植物病原体入侵和持久性方面的实际应用。这些包括对荷兰榆树病害的持久性和控制的长期预测;通过将控制规模与疾病的空间和时间尺度相匹配,确定管理英国甜菜根瘤菌传播的方法;并分析病毒控制的进化变化,以确定无意中选择破坏性病毒株的风险。通过将控制尺度与疾病的时空尺度相匹配;并分析病毒控制的进化变化,以确定无意中选择破坏性病毒株的风险。通过将控制尺度与疾病的时空尺度相匹配;并分析病毒控制的进化变化,以确定无意中选择破坏性病毒株的风险。
更新日期:2019-11-01
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