If the distributions of two binary variables are skewed, people erroneously perceive a correlation even if the variables are actually uncorrelated. Specifically, people perceive a correlation between the variables' infrequent (vs. frequent) levels. While such systematic Illusory Correlations (ICs) can account for important phenomena, including erroneous stereotypes linking minority groups with infrequent attributes, the theoretical explanation is still a matter of debate. As proposed in the distinctiveness-based account, ICs arise due to a memory advantage for infrequent events. Alternatively, it has been proposed that ICs reflect ad hoc inferences from univariate base rates. In two experiments, we tested the accounts' predictions using a standard IC paradigm followed by (1) a contingency judgment task, asking participants to directly report contingencies, and (2) a trial-by-trial source assignment task of group membership and attribute. Bayesian-hierarchical model analysis revealed that ICs in contingency judgments were positively correlated to ad hoc inferences, but uncorrelated to exemplar memory in participants' source assignments. Moreover, inducing a focus on infrequent events improved memory for distinct events, but did not result in stronger ICs. Thus, our results support the explanation of ICs as ad hoc inferences from base rates, rather than a memory advantage for distinctive item combinations.

中文翻译：

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虚假关联的起源。

如果两个二进制变量的分布偏斜，即使变量实际上不相关，人们也会错误地感知到相关性。具体而言，人们会感知变量的不频繁（相对于频繁）水平之间的相关性。尽管这种系统的幻觉相关性（IC）可以解释重要现象，包括将少数群体与罕见属性联系在一起的错误刻板印象，但理论解释仍是一个有争议的问题。如在基于区别性的帐户中提出的那样，IC的出现是由于不频繁事件的存储优势。备选地，已经提出了IC反映来自单变量基本速率的临时推断。在两个实验中，我们使用标准的IC范式测试了帐户的预测，然后进行了（1）应急判断任务，要求参与者直接报告突发事件，以及（2）组成员身份和属性的逐项尝试源分配任务。贝叶斯层次模型分析表明，应急决策中的IC与即席推论正相关，但与参与者源分配中的典型记忆无关。此外，将注意力集中在不经常发生的事件上可以改善对不同事件的记忆，但并不能提高IC的强度。因此，我们的结果支持将IC解释为根据基本费率的即席推断，而不是针对独特项组合的存储优势。但与参与者的源分配中的示例性记忆无关。此外，将注意力集中在不经常发生的事件上可以改善对不同事件的记忆，但并不能提高IC的强度。因此，我们的结果支持将IC解释为根据基本费率的即席推断，而不是针对独特项组合的存储优势。但与参与者的源分配中的示例性记忆无关。此外，将注意力集中在不经常发生的事件上可以改善对不同事件的记忆，但并不能提高IC的强度。因此，我们的结果支持将IC解释为根据基本费率的即席推断，而不是针对独特项组合的存储优势。