We regularly make predictions about future events, even in a world where events occur probabilistically rather than deterministically. Our environment may even be non-stationary such that the probability of an event may change suddenly or from one context to another. 4-6 year olds and adults viewed 3 boxes and guessed the location of a hidden toy. After 80 trials with one set of probabilities assigned to the 3 boxes, the spatial distribution of these probabilities was altered. Adults easily responded to this change, with participants who maximized in the first half (by choosing the most common location at a higher rate than it was presented) being the fastest at making this shift. Only the older children successfully switched to the new location, with younger children either partially switching, perseverating on their original strategy, or failing to learn the first distribution, suggesting a fundamental development in children's response to changing probabilities.

中文翻译：

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不确定世界中的概率学习：儿童如何适应不断变化的突发事件

我们经常对未来事件做出预测，即使在事件发生概率而非确定性的世界中也是如此。我们的环境甚至可能是非平稳的，以至于事件的概率可能会突然发生变化或从一种情况变为另一种情况。4-6 岁的儿童和成人查看 3 个盒子并猜出隐藏玩具的位置。在将一组概率分配给 3 个框的 80 次试验之后，这些概率的空间分布发生了变化。成年人很容易对这种变化做出反应，在前半部分最大化的参与者（通过以比呈现的速度更高的速度选择最常见的位置）是做出这种转变的最快的人。只有年龄较大的孩子成功切换到新位置，年幼的孩子要么部分切换，要么坚持原来的策略，