A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5–10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be “simple” (amenable to solutions from science alone), “complicated” (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), “complex” (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or “chaotic” (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.

中文翻译：

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南非生物多样性的水平扫描：需要社会参与以及科学。

进行了一次水平扫描，以确定在接下来的5-10年中南非正在出现的和正在加剧的生物多样性保护问题。南非生物多样性专家提交了63个问题，其中使用德尔菲方法确定了10个问题的优先事项。然后，沿着社会共识和科学确定性的轴标出这些优先问题，以确定问题是否可能是“简单的”（仅适用于科学的解决方案），“复杂的”（经过社会同意但在技术上复杂的），“复杂的”（科学地挑战性和显着程度的社会分歧）或“混乱”（高度社会分歧和高度科学挑战）。仅通过改进科学就可能仅解决三个问题，而其余问题则需要参与社会，经济和政治因素。幸运的是，没有一个问题被认为是混乱的。然而，人们认为与民众和决策者的战略沟通，教育和参与对于解决新出现的问题至关重要。