This article addresses the recent use of mathematical epidemiological SIR or SEIR models in plague research. This use of S(E)IR models is highly problematic, but the problems are not presented and considered. Serious problems show in that such models are used to “prove” that historical plague was a (1) Filoviridae disease and (2) a bacterial disease caused by Yersinia pestis which was transmitted by human fleas and lice. (3) They also support early-phase transmission (by fleas). They purportedly consistently disprove (4) the conventional view that plague is/was a rat-and-rat-flea-borne disease. For these reasons, the focus is on methodological problems and on empirical testing by modern medical, entomological, and historical epidemiological data. An important or predominant vectorial role in plague epidemics for human fleas and lice requires that several necessary conditions are satisfied, which are generally not considered by advocates of the human ectoparasite hypothesis of plague transmission: (1) the prevalence and levels of human plague bacteraemia (human plague cases as sources of infection of feeding human ectoparasites); (2) the general size of blood meals ingested by human fleas and lice; (3) the consequent number of ingested plague bacteria; (4) the lethal dose of bacteria for 50% of a normal sample of infected human beings, LD₅₀; and (5) efficient mechanism of transmission by lice and by fleas. The factual answers to these crucial questions can be ascertained and shown to invalidate the human ectoparasite hypothesis. The view of the standard works on plague has been corroborated, that bubonic plague, historical and modern, is/was a rat-and-rat-flea-borne disease caused by Yersinia pestis. These conclusions are concordant with and corroborate recent studies which, by laboratory experiments, invalidated the early-transmission hypothesis as a mechanism of transmission of LDs to humans in plague epidemics and removed this solution to the problem of transmission by human fleas.

中文翻译：

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鼠疫流行病学：鼠疫研究中数学流行病学模型的使用问题以及人类跳蚤和虱子的传播问题。


本文讨论了数学流行病学 SIR 或 SEIR 模型最近在鼠疫研究中的使用。 S(E)IR 模型的这种使用存在很大问题，但这些问题没有被提出和考虑。严重的问题在于，此类模型被用来“证明”历史上的鼠疫是一种（1）丝状病毒科疾病和（2）由鼠疫耶尔森菌引起的细菌性疾病，由人类跳蚤和虱子传播。 (3) 它们还支持早期传播（通过跳蚤）。据称，他们始终反驳（4）鼠疫是由老鼠和老鼠跳蚤传播的疾病的传统观点。由于这些原因，重点是方法论问题以及现代医学、昆虫学和历史流行病学数据的实证检验。人类跳蚤和虱子在鼠疫流行中的重要或主要媒介作用需要满足几个必要条件，而鼠疫传播的人类体外寄生虫假说的倡导者通常不考虑这些条件：（1）人类鼠疫菌血症的流行和水平（人类鼠疫病例作为喂养人类体外寄生虫的感染源）； (2)人类跳蚤和虱子摄入的血粉的一般大小； (3) 摄入鼠疫细菌的最终数量； (4) 50%正常感染者样本的细菌致死量，LD ₅₀ ； (5) 虱子和跳蚤的有效传播机制。这些关键问题的事实答案可以确定并证明人类体外寄生虫假说无效。关于鼠疫的标准著作的观点得到了证实，即黑死病，无论是历史上的还是现代的，都是由鼠疫耶尔森氏菌引起的一种由老鼠和老鼠跳蚤传播的疾病。 这些结论与最近的研究一致并证实了最近的研究，这些研究通过实验室实验证明了早期传播假说是鼠疫流行中 LD 向人类传播的机制，并消除了这种解决人类跳蚤传播问题的方法。