Abstract Biological invasions have emerged as an eminent feature of global change, with substantial impacts on the environment and human livelihoods. Current research demonstrates that the numbers and impacts of alien species are rising unabatedly. At the same time, we lack a thorough understanding of potential future trajectories for the decades to come. With the recent establishment of comprehensive global databases, it is, for the first time, feasible to develop and quantify future scenarios of biological invasions. Therefore, we propose a conceptual framework for how to develop alien species scenarios for the twenty-first century and how to identify relevant steps and challenges along the way. The concept will be important to inform research, policy, stakeholders, and the general public. Furthermore, we call for the scientific community to join forces and to operationalize the framework for scenarios and models of biological invasions to develop an important baseline for understanding and managing future biological invasions.

中文翻译：

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全球二十一世纪生物入侵情景和模型的框架

摘要 生物入侵已成为全球变化的显着特征，对环境和人类生计产生重大影响。目前的研究表明，外来物种的数量和影响正在有增无减。与此同时，我们对未来几十年的潜在未来轨迹缺乏透彻的了解。随着近期综合性全球数据库的建立，开发和量化未来生物入侵情景首次成为可能。因此，我们提出了一个概念框架，用于制定 21 世纪的外来物种情景，以及如何确定相关步骤和挑战。这个概念对于为研究、政策、利益相关者和公众提供信息非常重要。此外，