The American Cancer Society (ACS) has published the estimated number of new cancer cases and deaths in the current year for the United States that are commonly used by cancer control planners and the media. The methods used to produce these estimates have changed over the years as data (incidence) and statistical models improved. In this paper we present a new method that uses statistical models of cancer incidence that incorporate potential predictors of spatial and temporal variation of cancer occurrence and that account for delay in case reporting and then projects these estimated numbers of cases ahead 4 years using a piecewise linear (joinpoint) regression method. Based on evidence presented here that the new method produces more accurate estimates of the number of new cancer cases for years and areas for which data are available for comparison, the ACS has elected to use it to estimate the number of new cancer cases in Cancer Facts & Figures 2007 and in Cancer Statistics, 2007.

中文翻译：

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估计当前日历年美国和州级癌症发病率的新方法

美国癌症协会 (ACS) 公布了癌症控制计划者和媒体常用的美国本年度新癌症病例和死亡人数的估计数。多年来，随着数据（发生率）和统计模型的改进，用于产生这些估计值的方法发生了变化。在本文中，我们提出了一种新方法，该方法使用癌症发病率的统计模型，该模型结合了癌症发生的空间和时间变化的潜在预测因素，并解释了病例报告的延迟，然后使用分段线性预测未来 4 年的这些估计病例数(joinpoint) 回归方法。