Although most species distribution modeling (SDMs) are constructed at the species level, an appreciation of evolutionary processes has led to modeling above this level. In view of the difficulty in estimating the impacts of human actions on rare or deficient data species, we proposed a new approach to vulnerability assessment based on concepts already well established in the literature (ecological niche, niche conservatism, and extinction thresholds). We used distribution modeling to predict where species of the genus Phyllocycla (Calvert 1948) are most vulnerable to local extinctions and how the implementation of planned anthropic activities by the Brazilian government may modify the potential distribution of the genus in Brazil. We chose that genus because its conservation status is little known, especially due to the data gap about its geographical distribution. We proposed modeling the whole genus and used the niche conservatism theory to justify our methods. The anthropic activities considered in our analysis were agriculture and livestock, rural settlements, energy production installations, transportation, oil extraction, mining, and urbanization. We found that only 55.3% of the original potential distribution of Phyllocycla in Brazil remains available. The area compromised by anthropic activities comprises mainly the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, with less impact on the Amazon. However, with the implementation of activities planned by the Brazilian government, it is possible that an additional 13.6% of this area will be unavailable to species of Phyllocycla, especially in the Amazon, where interest in mining and the implementation of new hydroelectric production have increased.

中文翻译：

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毛状轮虫种类（Odonata：Gomphidae）对巴西政府目前和计划中的人类活动的脆弱性。

尽管大多数物种分布模型（SDM）都是在物种级别构建的，但是对进化过程的赞赏导致了在该级别之上的建模。考虑到难以估计人类行为对稀有或不足数据种类的影响，我们基于文献中已充分确立的概念（生态位，生态位保守性和灭绝阈值）提出了一种新的脆弱性评估方法。我们使用分布模型来预测毛竹属的物种（Calvert，1948年）最容易受到当地物种灭绝的影响，以及巴西政府计划开展的人类活动如何改变巴西属的潜在分布。我们之所以选择该属，是因为其保护状态鲜为人知，特别是由于有关其地理分布的数据空白。我们建议对整个属进行建模，并使用利基保守主义理论来证明我们的方法是正确的。我们分析中考虑的人类活动是农业和畜牧业，农村居民区，能源生产装置，运输，石油开采，采矿和城市化。我们发现，Phyllocycla的原始潜在分布只有55.3％在巴西仍然可用。人类活动所影响的地区主要包括塞拉多和大西洋森林生物群落，对亚马逊河的影响较小。但是，随着巴西政府计划开展的活动的实施，Phyllocycla物种可能无法再利用该地区的13.6％的土地，特别是在亚马逊地区，那里对采矿和实施新的水力发电的兴趣有所增加。