The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5–8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019–20 and increasing to 30% by 2027–28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029–30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23–1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia.

中文翻译：

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孟加拉国抗爆生物强化小麦的经济效益：以 BARI Gom 33 为例

2016 年首次发生的小麦瘟疫威胁到孟加拉国本已岌岌可危的粮食安全形势。孟加拉国农业研究所 (BARI) 与国际玉米和小麦改良中心 (CIMMYT) 共同开发并发布了抗小麦瘟疫和其他常见病害的小麦品种 BARI Gom 33。与现有的流行品种相比，新品种的产量提高了 5-8%，并且富含锌。本研究考察了 BARI Gom 33 在孟加拉国的潜在经济效益。首先，应用气候模拟模型，这项研究确定孟加拉国小麦总种植面积的 55% 以上（跨越 45 个地区）容易受到小麦瘟疫的影响。其次，应用事前影响评估框架，该研究表明，假设从 2019-20 年开始累计采用率到 2027-28 年增加到 30%，新开发的小麦品种的潜在经济效益在 2029-30 年将远远超过其传播成本。即使新小麦品种的传播仅限于目前受爆炸影响的 10 个地区，年平均净收益也可能达到 23-160 万美元。根据调查结果，敦促国际资助机构支持国家系统扩大小麦新品种和一般小麦研究，以确保孟加拉国和南亚的整体粮食安全。即使新小麦品种的传播仅限于目前受爆炸影响的 10 个地区，年平均净收益也可能达到 23-160 万美元。根据调查结果，敦促国际资助机构支持国家系统扩大小麦新品种和一般小麦研究，以确保孟加拉国和南亚的整体粮食安全。即使新小麦品种的传播仅限于目前受爆炸影响的 10 个地区，年平均净收益也可能达到 23-160 万美元。根据调查结果，敦促国际资助机构支持国家系统扩大小麦新品种和一般小麦研究，以确保孟加拉国和南亚的整体粮食安全。