The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols-specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate-depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions-while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation-could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

中文翻译：

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一系列气溶胶排放情景导致的未来北极温度变化。

北极对气溶胶（特别是黑碳（BC），有机碳（OC）和硫酸盐）排放的温度响应取决于这些排放的部门和地区。因此，北极对全球气溶胶排放量减少的净温度响应将在很大程度上取决于目标排放源的混合情况。我们使用最近发布的有关BC，OC和硫酸盐的平衡北极温度响应因子，从七个不同的气溶胶排放情景中估算了当今和未来北极温度变化的范围。在全球范围内，从所有这些排放情景计算得出的北极温度变化表明，目前来自家庭和运输部门的排放量是造成不列颠哥伦比亚省当前北极变暖的主要部分。但是，在所有这些情况下，能源行业的SO2排放所产生的冷却作用可以抵消这种变暖的影响。因此，着眼于减少能源部门二氧化碳（CO2）排放的长期气候减缓策略可能会导致气溶胶引起的短期北极变暖。采取适当阶段性的方法，以交通领域以及主要地区的本国部门中富含BC的排放为目标，同时努力实现二氧化碳减排的长期目标，可能会避免短期的北极升温。