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The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?
Earth's Future Pub Date : 2016-11-01 , DOI: 10.1002/2016ef000417
Xiao-Hai Yan 1 , Tim Boyer 2 , Kevin Trenberth 3 , Thomas R Karl 4 , Shang-Ping Xie 5 , Veronica Nieves 6, 7 , Ka-Kit Tung 8 , Dean Roemmich 5
Affiliation  

Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

中文翻译:

全球变暖的裂口:放缓还是重新分配?

与20世纪下半叶的变暖相比,1998-2013年期间的全球平均地表温度(GMST)升温幅度较小。虽然在严格意义上不是“真正的”中断,但IPCC已将其称为“全球变暖中断”(2013年)。根据分析,还有其他时期也被定义为“休止期”。关于“中断”存在许多不确定性和知识差距。本报告回顾了这些问题,并从一系列有助于理解我们所做和不知道的各种信息的集合中得出了见解。一个显着的见解是,GMST现象是一种表面特征,并不代表气候系统变暖的放缓,而是海洋内部的能量重新分布。更好地了解海洋的分布和热量的重新分布将有助于更好地监视地球的能源预算及其后果。对有关“裂孔”的最新科学出版物的回顾表明,很难从大气层和海洋上层(定义为“裂孔”)中精确定位“漏热”的海洋汇。本报告介绍了“中断”研究的进展和前景(建议)。的能源预算及其后果。对有关“裂孔”的最新科学出版物的回顾表明,很难从大气层和海洋上层(定义为“裂孔”)中精确定位“漏热”的海洋汇。本报告介绍了“中断”研究的进展和前景(建议)。的能源预算及其后果。对有关“裂孔”的最新科学出版物的回顾表明,很难从大气层和海洋上层(定义为“裂孔”)中精确定位“漏热”的海洋汇。本报告介绍了“中断”研究的进展和前景(建议)。
更新日期:2019-11-01
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