Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.

中文翻译：

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基于全球集合地表模型的高分辨率国家尺度水文预报系统。

能够提前几天预测洪水的预警系统有可能使数千万人受益。因此，高级水文预测服务或全球洪水感知系统等大规模水流预测系统仅限于粗略分辨率。本文提出了一种路由全球径流集合预报和欧洲中期天气预报中心模型生成的全球历史径流的方法，使用流量并行计算路由应用程序来生成高空间分辨率的 15 天河流预报、近似重现间隔，并在预计水流超过重复间隔阈值的位置设置警告点。处理方法涉及使用计算机集群分配计算，以促进具有高密度河流网络的大型流域的处理。此外，还开发了水流预测工具网络应用程序，用于可视化区域级别和高密度水流网络到达级别的分析结果。该应用程序构成了国家洪水互操作性实验可用的基础水文预报服务的一部分，并且可以通过将国家水文Plus版本2数据集近270万河段的集合预测纳入国家预报系统来改变国家的预报能力。