The science of judgment and decision making involves three interrelated forms of research: analysis of the decisions people face, description of their natural responses, and interventions meant to help them do better. After briefly introducing the field's intellectual foundations, we review recent basic research into the three core elements of decision making: judgment, or how people predict the outcomes that will follow possible choices; preference, or how people weigh those outcomes; and choice, or how people combine judgments and preferences to reach a decision. We then review research into two potential sources of behavioral heterogeneity: individual differences in decision-making competence and developmental changes across the life span. Next, we illustrate applications intended to improve individual and organizational decision making in health, public policy, intelligence analysis, and risk management. We emphasize the potential value of coupling analytical and behavioral research and having basic and applied research inform one another.

中文翻译：

---

判断与决策。

判断和决策科学涉及三种相互关联的研究形式：对人们面临的决策的分析，对他们自然反应的描述以及旨在帮助他们做得更好的干预措施。在简要介绍了该领域的知识基础之后，我们回顾了对决策三个核心要素的最新基础研究：判断或人们如何预测将遵循可能选择的结果；偏好或人们如何权衡这些结果；和选择，或者人们如何结合判断力和偏好来做出决定。然后，我们回顾对行为异质性的两个潜在来源的研究：决策能力的个体差异和整个生命周期的发展变化。下一个，我们举例说明了旨在改善健康，公共政策，情报分析和风险管理中个人和组织决策的应用程序。我们强调分析与行为研究相结合的潜在价值，并使基础研究和应用研究相互交流。