Quantifying ecosystem goods and services can help evaluate policies aimed at protecting present and future generations from losing ecosystem benefits. Explicating and quantifying the relationships among risk factors, ecological structure and function, and delivery of ecosystem goods and services requires analytical methodologies that propagate uncertainties. The capabilities of Bayesian networks in generating predictions and accounting for uncertainty are explored with a focus on coral reef ecosystem service assessments. The qualitative aspects of Bayesian networks can be applied to conceptual frameworks developed for coral reef ecosystem service assessments. This is demonstrated using qualitative graphs that describe the relationships between coral reef condition endpoints and benefits from ecosystem services including property protection, recreational opportunities, fish for fisheries, and biochemical metabolites for commercial products developed from reef organisms. Bayesian networks help weigh uncertainties between management decision impacts on stressors and the corresponding delivery of ecosystem services. Quantitative capabilities for inferences are examined in hypothetical scenarios evaluating how decisions affect coral reef ecosystem services and economic benefits and resilience to episodic stress. The described methods facilitate visualizing the potential impacts on ecosystem services from alternative scenarios.

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介绍贝叶斯网络作为管理珊瑚礁生态系统服务的评估和决策支持工具

量化生态系统产品和服务有助于评估旨在保护今世后代免于失去生态系统利益的政策。解释和量化风险因素、生态结构和功能以及生态系统产品和服务的交付之间的关系需要传播不确定性的分析方法。探索贝叶斯网络在生成预测和解释不确定性方面的能力，重点是珊瑚礁生态系统服务评估。贝叶斯网络的定性方面可以应用于为珊瑚礁生态系统服务评估开发的概念框架。使用定性图表证明了这一点，这些图表描述了珊瑚礁状况端点与生态系统服务（包括财产保护）的收益之间的关系，娱乐机会、渔业鱼类以及由珊瑚礁生物开发的商业产品的生化代谢物。贝叶斯网络有助于权衡管理决策对压力源的影响与相应的生态系统服务提供之间的不确定性。在评估决策如何影响珊瑚礁生态系统服务和经济效益以及对偶发性压力的恢复能力的假设情景中，对推理的定量能力进行了检验。所描述的方法有助于可视化替代情景对生态系统服务的潜在影响。贝叶斯网络有助于权衡管理决策对压力源的影响与相应的生态系统服务提供之间的不确定性。在评估决策如何影响珊瑚礁生态系统服务和经济效益以及对偶发性压力的恢复能力的假设情景中，对推理的定量能力进行了检验。所描述的方法有助于可视化替代情景对生态系统服务的潜在影响。贝叶斯网络有助于权衡管理决策对压力源的影响与相应的生态系统服务提供之间的不确定性。在评估决策如何影响珊瑚礁生态系统服务和经济效益以及对偶发性压力的恢复能力的假设情景中，对推理的定量能力进行了检验。所描述的方法有助于可视化替代情景对生态系统服务的潜在影响。