We develop an agent-based model of utilitarian walking and use the model to explore spatial and socioeconomic factors affecting adult utilitarian walking and how travel costs as well as various educational interventions aimed at changing attitudes can alter the prevalence of walking and income differentials in walking. The model is validated against US national data. We contrast realistic and extreme parameter values in our model and test effects of changing these parameters across various segregation and pricing scenarios while allowing for interactions between travel choice and place and for behavioral feedbacks. Results suggest that in addition to income differences in the perceived cost of time, the concentration of mixed land use (differential density of residences and businesses) are important determinants of income differences in walking (high income walk less), whereas safety from crime and income segregation on their own do not have large influences on income differences in walking. We also show the difficulty in altering walking behaviors for higher income groups who are insensitive to price and how adding to the cost of driving could increase the income differential in walking particularly in the context of segregation by income and land use. We show that strategies to decrease positive attitudes towards driving can interact synergistically with shifting cost structures to favor walking in increasing the percent of walking trips. Agent-based models, with their ability to capture dynamic processes and incorporate empirical data, are powerful tools to explore the influence on health behavior from multiple factors and test policy interventions.

中文翻译：

---

模拟空间隔离和旅行成本对功利性步行的影响：走向政策干预


我们开发了一种基于主体的功利性步行模型，并使用该模型探索影响成人功利性步行的空间和社会经济因素，以及旅行成本以及旨在改变态度的各种教育干预措施如何改变步行的流行率和步行的收入差异。该模型根据美国国家数据进行了验证。我们对比模型中的现实参数值和极端参数值，并测试在各种隔离和定价场景中更改这些参数的效果，同时允许旅行选择和地点之间的交互以及行为反馈。结果表明，除了感知时间成本的收入差异外，混合土地利用的集中度（住宅和企业的不同密度）是步行收入差异的重要决定因素（高收入步行较少），而免受犯罪和收入影响的安全性种族隔离本身对步行的收入差异没有太大影响。我们还展示了对价格不敏感的高收入群体改变步行行为的困难，以及增加驾驶成本如何增加步行的收入差异，特别是在收入和土地使用隔离的背景下。我们表明，降低对驾驶的积极态度的策略可以与改变成本结构以支持步行来协同相互作用，从而增加步行出行的百分比。基于主体的模型能够捕捉动态过程并结合经验数据，是探索多种因素对健康行为的影响和测试政策干预的强大工具。