A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half-cent per ounce increase in sugar-sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low-income households than for high-income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low-income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction.

中文翻译：

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预测含糖饮料税对大需求系统中食品和饮料需求的影响

估计有 23 种包装食品和饮料以及 numéraire 商品的经过审查的精确仿射石指数不完全需求系统。工具变量用于控制内生价格。预计含糖饮料价格每盎司上涨 0.5 美分将减少 23 种食品和饮料的总热量，但由于产品替代，钠和脂肪的摄入量会增加。与高收入家庭相比，低收入家庭的卡路里预测下降幅度更大，但低收入家庭的福利损失也更高。忽略价格内生性或估计条件需求模型会显着高估卡路里减少量。