Agricultural production fulfills economic, ecological and structural functions. Despite technological advances, agricultural production remains sensitive to climate variations. In central Europe, climate change is predicted to bring more rainfall in winter, less rainfall in summer, and increased drought risk among other effects. Grassland agriculture, which is the dominant land use in Alpine regions, may be significantly affected by these climatic changes in the future. Motivated by this issue, the susceptibility of grassland yields to weather variations in Austria is empirical evaluated as a case study. The major objective of this study is to derive spatially distributed indications for climate change exposure by assessing the impacts of weather variations on past yield. It is assumed that reduced water supply during summer constitutes a threat to grassland productivity in regions that are warmer and drier already today. On the contrary, increased spring temperatures may improve grassland productivity in cooler regions like Alpine valleys, since the earlier snow melt leads to an extension of the growth period. Regression analyses are used for evaluating the relation between yearly yields and spring temperatures or water supply in summer, respectively. Water supply is thereby expressed by aggregated precipitation sums and the Climatic Water Balance (CWB). Input data are a meteorological time series as well as yearly yields available for 25 years between 1970 and 2010 and 99 districts in Austria. Yearly yields show a significant (P < 0.05) and positive dependency on water supply in summer for the eastern Austrian lowlands. The combination of temperature in spring and CWB in summer is only significant for six districts in the east of Austria. The positive impact of higher spring temperatures could not be verified. Generally, the regression coefficients are not very high, which indicates that temperature and water supply do not fully describe grassland productivity. Projected climate change may increasingly constitute a risk to yield reliability in the east of the country. That in turn, requires consideration in agricultural development plans and a quantification of these impacts from a social-economic perspective.

中文翻译：

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奥地利草地产量对天气变化的空间敏感性及其对未来的影响

农业生产具有经济、生态和结构功能。尽管技术进步，农业生产仍然对气候变化敏感。在中欧，预计气候变化将带来冬季降雨量增加、夏季降雨量减少以及干旱风险增加等影响。草原农业是高寒地区主要的土地利用方式，未来可能会受到这些气候变化的显着影响。受此问题的启发，奥地利草地产量对天气变化的敏感性作为案例研究进行了实证评估。本研究的主要目标是通过评估天气变化对过去产量的影响，得出气候变化暴露的空间分布指示。据推测，夏季供水减少对今天已经更暖和更干燥的地区的草原生产力构成威胁。相反，春季气温升高可能会提高阿尔卑斯山谷等较冷地区的草原生产力，因为较早的融雪会导致生长期延长。回归分析分别用于评估年产量与春季温度或夏季供水之间的关系。因此，供水量由总降水量和气候水平衡 (CWB) 表示。输入数据是气象时间序列以及 1970 年至 2010 年间 25 年和奥地利 99 个地区可用的年产量。年收益率显着（P < 0。05) 以及奥地利东部低地夏季对供水的积极依赖。春季温度和夏季 CWB 的组合仅在奥地利东部的六个地区显着。无法验证较高的春季温度的积极影响。一般来说，回归系数不是很高，这表明温度和供水不能完全描述草地生产力。预计的气候变化可能会越来越多地构成该国东部地区产量可靠性的风险。反过来，这需要在农业发展计划中加以考虑，并从社会经济角度对这些影响进行量化。无法验证较高的春季温度的积极影响。一般来说，回归系数不是很高，这表明温度和供水不能完全描述草地生产力。预计的气候变化可能会越来越多地构成该国东部地区产量可靠性的风险。反过来，这需要在农业发展计划中加以考虑，并从社会经济角度对这些影响进行量化。无法验证较高的春季温度的积极影响。一般来说，回归系数不是很高，这表明温度和供水不能完全描述草地生产力。预计的气候变化可能会越来越多地构成该国东部地区产量可靠性的风险。反过来，这需要在农业发展计划中加以考虑，并从社会经济角度对这些影响进行量化。