Malaria elimination remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including large areas of northern South America. In this study, we present a new high spatial resolution (90 × 90 m) risk map for Colombia and surrounding areas based on environmental and human population data. The map was created through a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis in which expert opinion was solicited to determine key environmental and population risk factors, different fuzzy functions to standardize risk factor inputs, and variable factor weights to combine risk factors in a geographic information system. The new risk map was compared to a map of malaria cases in which cases were aggregated to the municipio (municipality) level. The relationship between mean municipio risk scores and total cases by muncípio showed a weak correlation. However, the relationship between pixel-level risk scores and vector occurrence points for two dominant vector species, Anopheles albimanus and An. darlingi, was significantly different (p < 0.05) from a random point distribution, as was a pooled point distribution for these two vector species and An. nuneztovari. Thus, we conclude that the new risk map derived based on expert opinion provides an accurate spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure rather than malaria transmission as shown by the pattern of malaria cases, and therefore it may be used to inform public health authorities as to where vector control measures should be prioritized to limit human-vector contact in future malaria outbreaks.

中文翻译：

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使用环境和人口数据绘制南美洲北部疟疾病媒暴露的参与式风险图

在许多热带地区，包括南美洲北部的大片地区，消除疟疾仍然是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。在这项研究中，我们根据环境和人口数据为哥伦比亚及周边地区提供了一个新的高空间分辨率（90 × 90 m）风险地图。该地图是通过参与式多标准决策分析创建的，其中征求专家意见以确定关键的环境和人口风险因素，使用不同的模糊函数来标准化风险因素输入，以及可变因素权重以组合地理信息系统中的风险因素。新的风险地图与疟疾病例地图进行了比较，其中病例汇总到 municipio（自治市）级别。muncípio 的平均 municipio 风险评分与总病例数之间的关系显示出弱相关性。然而，像素级风险评分与两个优势载体物种白化按蚊和 An 的载体发生点之间的关系。darlingi 与随机点分布显着不同（p < 0.05），这两个向量物种和 An 的汇集点分布也是如此。努涅斯托瓦里 因此，我们得出结论，根据专家意见得出的新风险图提供了潜在媒介暴露风险的准确空间表示，而不是疟疾病例模式所显示的疟疾传播风险，因此它可用于通知公共卫生当局应优先采取病媒控制措施以限制未来疟疾爆发中人与病媒接触的地方。Anopheles albimanus 和 An. darlingi 与随机点分布显着不同（p < 0.05），这两个向量物种和 An 的汇集点分布也是如此。努涅斯托瓦里 因此，我们得出结论，根据专家意见得出的新风险图提供了潜在媒介暴露风险的准确空间表示，而不是疟疾病例模式所显示的疟疾传播风险，因此它可用于通知公共卫生当局应优先采取病媒控制措施以限制未来疟疾爆发中人与病媒接触的地方。Anopheles albimanus 和 An. darlingi 与随机点分布显着不同（p < 0.05），这两个向量物种和 An 的汇集点分布也是如此。努涅斯托瓦里 因此，我们得出结论，根据专家意见得出的新风险图提供了潜在媒介暴露风险的准确空间表示，而不是疟疾病例模式所显示的疟疾传播风险，因此它可用于通知公共卫生当局应优先采取病媒控制措施以限制未来疟疾爆发中人与病媒接触的地方。