A GIS-based risk index model was developed to quantify EEEV transmission risk to horses in the State of Florida. EEEV is a highly pathogenic arbovirus that is endemic along the east coast of the United States, and it is generally fatal to both horses and humans. The model evaluates EEEV transmission risk at individual raster cells in map on a continuous scale of 0 to 1. The risk index is derived based on local habitat features and the composition and configuration of surrounding land cover types associated with EEEV transmission. The model was verified and validated using the locations of documented horse cases of EEEV. These results of the verification and validation indicate that the model is able to predict locations of EEEV transmission to horses broadly across the state. The model is relatively robust to regional variation in EEEV transmission and habitat conditions in Florida, and it accurately predicted nearly all verification and validation cases in the Panhandle, North, and Central regions of the state. The model performed less accurately in the South, where relatively few cases are documented. Despite these differences, the model provides a useful way to assess EEEV risk both from a regional perspective and at more localized scales. The resulting predictive maps are designed to guide EEEV surveillance and prevention efforts by county mosquito control districts.

中文翻译：

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佛罗里达州预测东部马脑炎病毒向马传播的风险指数模型

开发了基于 GIS 的风险指数模型来量化佛罗里达州马匹的 EEEV 传播风险。EEEV 是一种高致病性虫媒病毒，在美国东海岸流行，通常对马和人类都是致命的。该模型以 0 到 1 的连续尺度评估地图中各个栅格单元的 EEEV 传输风险。风险指数是根据当地栖息地特征以及与 EEEV 传输相关的周围土地覆盖类型的组成和配置得出的。该模型使用记录在案的 EEEV 马病例的位置进行了验证和验证。验证和验证的这些结果表明，该模型能够预测 EEEV 传播到全州范围内的马匹的位置。该模型对佛罗里达州 EEEV 传输和栖息地条件的区域变化相对稳健，并且它准确地预测了该州狭长地带、北部和中部地区的几乎所有验证和验证案例。该模型在南方执行得不太准确，那里记录的案例相对较少。尽管存在这些差异，但该模型提供了一种有用的方法，可以从区域角度和更局部的范围内评估 EEEV 风险。由此产生的预测地图旨在指导县蚊子控制区的 EEEV 监测和预防工作。记录的案例相对较少。尽管存在这些差异，但该模型提供了一种有用的方法，可以从区域角度和更局部的范围内评估 EEEV 风险。由此产生的预测地图旨在指导县蚊子控制区的 EEEV 监测和预防工作。记录的案例相对较少。尽管存在这些差异，但该模型提供了一种有用的方法，可以从区域角度和更局部的范围内评估 EEEV 风险。由此产生的预测地图旨在指导县蚊子控制区的 EEEV 监测和预防工作。