Winter 2016/2017 was one of the driest on record for central Europe and the United Kingdom. This was the result of blocked atmospheric circulation with high pressure centred over North‐West Europe dominating the winter mean circulation pattern. Using large ensembles of simulated winters, we find that the observed winter 2016/2017 circulation was very similar in pattern and strength to the circulation associated with the top 10% of driest Central European winters. Here, we explore whether seasonal forecasts were able to predict this circulation pattern. Despite the fact that the observed circulation anomaly did not project on to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we find that forecasts starting in November did predict a high‐pressure anomaly over North‐Western Europe. We use two independent data sets, and methods, to probe the drivers of this circulation pattern. We find evidence for a Rossby Wave propagating out of the tropical Atlantic where there were anomalous local rainfall anomalies. This case study is another example of real‐time seasonal forecast skill for Europe and provides evidence for predictability beyond the NAO pattern.

中文翻译：

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2016/2017 年欧洲冬季的可预测性

2016/2017 年冬季是中欧和英国有记录以来最干燥的冬季之一。这是大气环流受阻的结果，以西北欧为中心的高压主导了冬季平均环流模式。使用模拟冬季的大型集合，我们发现观察到的 2016/2017 年冬季环流在模式和强度上与中欧最干旱的前 10% 冬季相关的环流非常相似。在这里，我们探讨季节性预测是否能够预测这种循环模式。尽管观测到的环流异常并未投射到北大西洋涛动 (NAO)，但我们发现从 11 月开始的预测确实预测了西北欧的高压异常。我们使用两个独立的数据集和方法，探索这种循环模式的驱动因素。我们发现了罗斯比波从热带大西洋传播的证据，那里有异常的局部降雨异常。本案例研究是欧洲实时季节性预测技能的另一个例子，并为超越 NAO 模式的可预测性提供了证据。