Environmental temperature is an important driver of the population dynamics of tsetse (Glossina spp) because the fly's immature stages are particularly vulnerable to temperatures (T) outside the range T = 16–32°C. Laboratory experiments carried out 50 years ago provide extensive measures of temperature-dependent rates of development, fat consumption and mortality in tsetse pupae. We improve on the models originally fitted to these data, providing better parameter estimates for use in population modelling. A composite function accurately models rates of pupal development for T = 8–32°C. Pupal duration can be estimated by summing the temperature-dependent daily percentage of development completed. Fat consumption is modelled as a logistic function of temperature; the total fat consumed during pupal development takes a minimum for T ≈ 25°C. Pupae experiencing constant temperatures <16°C exhaust their fat reserves before they complete development. At high temperatures, direct effects kill the pupae before fat stores are exhausted. The relationship between pupal mortality and temperature is well described by the sum of two exponential functions. Summing daily mortality rates over the whole pupal period does not reliably predict overall mortality. Mortality is more strongly correlated with the mean temperature experienced over pupal life or, for T ≤ 30°C, the fat consumption during this period. The new results will be particularly useful in the construction of various models for tsetse population dynamics, and will have particular relevance for agent-based models where the lives of individual tsetse are simulated using a daily time step.

中文翻译：

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采采蝇 (Glossina spp) 蛹发育、脂肪消耗和死亡率的模型

环境温度是采采蝇种群动态的重要驱动因素（格洛西纳spp）因为苍蝇的未成熟阶段特别容易受到温度的影响（吨) 范围外吨= 16–32°C。50 年前进行的实验室实验提供了对采采蝇蛹的温度依赖性发育、脂肪消耗和死亡率的广泛测量。我们改进了最初适合这些数据的模型，为人口建模提供了更好的参数估计。复合函数准确地模拟蛹发育率吨= 8–32°C。蛹的持续时间可以通过将与温度相关的每日发育完成百分比相加来估计。脂肪消耗被建模为温度的逻辑函数；蛹发育过程中消耗的总脂肪最少需要吨≈ 25°C。蛹经历恒定温度<16°C，在它们完成发育之前耗尽它们的脂肪储备。在高温下，直接效应会在脂肪储存耗尽之前杀死蛹。蛹死亡率和温度之间的关系很好地描述了两个指数函数的总和。将整个蛹期的每日死亡率求和并不能可靠地预测总体死亡率。死亡率与蛹生活中经历的平均温度密切相关，或者，对于吨≤ 30°C，此期间的脂肪消耗。新结果将特别适用于构建采采蝇种群动态的各种模型，并且与使用每日时间步长模拟个体采采蝇生命的基于代理的模型特别相关。