We employ Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the population dynamics of pesticide exposure to a honey bee colony using the VarroaPop+Pesticide model. Simulations are performed of hive population trajectories with and without pesticide exposure to determine the effects of weather, queen strength, foraging activity, colony resources, and Varroa populations on colony growth and survival. The daily resolution of the model allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. Simulations indicate queen strength and forager lifespan are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics in both the control and exposed conditions. Adult contact toxicity, application rate and nectar load become critical parameters for colony dynamics within exposed simulations. Daily sensitivity analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs.

中文翻译：

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模拟农药对蜜蜂群落影响的敏感性分析

我们采用蒙特卡罗模拟和敏感性分析技术，使用 VarroaPop+Pesticide 模型来描述蜜蜂群落中农药暴露的种群动态。对接触和不接触杀虫剂的蜂巢种群轨迹进行模拟，以确定天气、蜂王强度、觅食活动、蜂群资源和瓦螨种群对蜂群生长和存活的影响。模型的每日分辨率允许我们有条件地识别敏感度指标。模拟表明，在控制和暴露条件下，蜂王的力量和觅食者的寿命是一致的，是殖民地动态的关键输入。成人接触毒性、施用率和花蜜负荷成为暴露模拟中菌落动态的关键参数。