The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.

中文翻译：

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我们能否确定欧洲未来土地利用的变化？多场景综合评估分析


全球土地系统正面临着人口增长和气候变化带来的前所未有的压力。了解这些压力可能产生的影响对于设计确保粮食安全、生态系统服务提供以及成功减缓和适应气候变化的土地管理战略至关重要。然而，所涉及的复杂的、相互作用的影响的数量使得任何完整的理解都很难实现。尽管如此，最近开发的综合建模框架允许探索全球变化情景下人类和自然系统的共同发展，有可能阐明未来土地系统变化的主要驱动因素和过程。在这里，我们使用这样一个综合建模框架（CLIMSAVE 综合评估平台）来调查 2050 年代欧洲土地系统在气候和社会经济情景下的预测结果范围。我们发现，即使在最不同的条件下，变化的地点和类型也存在很大的一致性，结果表明，仅气候变化就会导致欧洲境内，特别是南欧的农业和林业面积萎缩。这在一定程度上被社会经济变革的引入所抵消，社会经济变革通过改变粮食需求和净进口来改变农业生产的需求以及农业生产的效率。地中海地区模拟的扩张和废弃是由于南欧农业部门未来的相对盈利能力下降所驱动的，这是由于高温和干旱压力增加以及灌溉用水减少导致生产力下降。 欧洲许多地区目前的土地利用比例保持不变的可能性极低（< 33%），这表明未来的政策应寻求促进和支持欧洲不同地区农业和森林的多功能作用，而不是侧重于提高生产力作为实现农业和林业生存能力的途径。