Host abundance and landscape structure often interact to shape spatial patterns of many wildlife diseases. Emergence, spread, and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) among wild boar in eastern Europe has raised questions on the factors underlying ASF dynamics in this novel host-pathogen system. This work identifies drivers of ASF occurrence in natural wild boar population. We evaluated factors shaping the probability of ASF-postitive wild boar during the first three years (2014-2016) of the ASF epidemic in Poland. We expected to observe positive effects of wild boar density, proportion of forested area, human activity, and proximity to previous infections on ASF case probability. We tested these predictions using the infection status of 830 wild boar samples and generalized mixed-effects models. The probability of ASF case increased from 3 to 20% as population density rose from 0.4 to 2 ind./km2. The positive effect of population density on ASF case probability was stronger at locations near previous ASF incidents. ASF was more likely to occur in forested areas, with the probability of detecting an ASF positive sample rising from 2 to 11% as forest cover around the sample increased from 0.5 to 100%. This pattern was consistent at both low and high wild boar densities. Indicators of human activity were poor predictors of ASF occurrence. Disease control efforts, such as culling and carcass search, should be focused on high-density populations where chances of detecting and eliminating ASF-positive wild boar are higher. The intensity of control measures should decrease with distance from the infected area to match the observed spatial pattern of ASF case probability. Woodlands represent areas of the highest risk of ASF case occurrence. Distribution and connectivity of suitable habitats over the landscape can be used to prioritize disease-management actions.

中文翻译：

---

非洲猪瘟的空间流行病学：野猪疾病的寄主，风景和人为驱动因素。

宿主的丰度和景观结构经常相互作用，以塑造许多野生动物疾病的空间格局。东欧野猪中非洲猪瘟（ASF）的出现，扩散和持续存在，引发了人们对这种新型宿主-病原体系统中ASF动力学潜在因素的质疑。这项工作确定在自然野猪种群中ASF发生的驱动因素。我们评估了影响波兰ASF流行的前三年（2014-2016）ASF阳性野猪可能性的因素。我们期望观察到野猪密度，林地面积比例，人类活动以及与先前感染的接近度对ASF病例概率的积极影响。我们使用830个野猪样本的感染状况和广义混合效应模型测试了这些预测。随着人口密度从0.4 ind./km2增加，ASF病例的可能性从3％增加到20％。人口密度对ASF病例概率的积极影响在先前ASF事件附近的地点更强。在森林地区更容易发生ASF，随着样本周围森林覆盖率从0.5％增加到100％，检测到ASF阳性样本的可能性从2％上升到11％。在低和高野猪密度下，这种模式都是一致的。人类活动的指标不能准确预测ASF的发生。疾病控制工作（例如剔除和car体搜索）应集中于高密度人群，在这些人群中发现和消除ASF阳性野猪的机会更高。控制措施的强度应随着距感染区域的距离而减小，以与观察到的ASF病例概率的空间格局相匹配。林地是发生ASF病例风险最高的地区。适当栖息地在景观上的分布和连通性可用于确定疾病管理措施的优先级。