The Arctic cryosphere is changing and making a significant contribution to sea level rise. The Late Pliocene had similar CO₂ levels to the present and a warming comparable to model predictions for the end of this century. However, the state of the Arctic cryosphere during the Pliocene remains poorly constrained. For the first time we combine outputs from a climate model with a thermodynamic iceberg model to simulate likely source regions for ice‐rafted debris (IRD) found in the Nordic Seas from Marine Isotope Stage M2 to the mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period and what this implies about the nature of the Arctic cryosphere at this time. We compare the fraction of melt given by the model scenarios with IRD data from four Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Nordic Seas. Sites 911A, 909C, and 907A show a persistent occurrence of IRD that model results suggest is consistent with permanent ice on Svalbard. Our results indicate that icebergs sourced from the east coast of Greenland do not reach the Nordic Seas sites during the warm Late Pliocene but instead travel south into the North Atlantic. In conclusion, we suggest a continuous occurrence of marine‐terminating glaciers on Svalbard and on East Greenland (due to the elevation of the East Greenland Mountains during the Late Pliocene). The study has highlighted the usefulness of coupled climate model‐iceberg trajectory modeling for understanding ice sheet behavior when proximal geological records for Pliocene ice presence or absence are absent or are inconclusive.

中文翻译：

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整个上新世晚期北欧海域的冰山。

北极冰冻圈正在发生变化，并对海平面上升做出了重大贡献。_{上新世晚期的CO 2}水平与现在相似，变暖程度与本世纪末的模型预测相当。然而，上新世期间北极冰冻圈的状况仍然受到很少的限制。我们首次将气候模型的输出与热力学冰山模型结合起来，模拟从海洋同位素阶段 M2 到中期皮亚琴兹暖期的北欧海域中发现的冰筏碎片 (IRD) 的可能来源区域，以及这意味着什么关于此时北极冰冻圈的性质。我们将模型情景给出的融化比例与北欧海域四个海洋钻探计划地点的 IRD 数据进行比较。911A、909C 和 907A 地点显示 IRD 持续存在，模型结果表明与斯瓦尔巴群岛上的永久冰一致。我们的研究结果表明，来自格陵兰岛东海岸的冰山在温暖的上新世晚期并未到达北欧海域，而是向南进入北大西洋。总之，我们认为斯瓦尔巴群岛和东格陵兰岛持续存在海洋终止冰川（由于上新世晚期东格陵兰山脉的海拔升高）。该研究强调了耦合气候模型-冰山轨迹模型对于理解上新世冰存在或不存在的近端地质记录不存在或不确定时冰盖行为的有用性。