Background There has been an ongoing decline in bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the Republic of Ireland, however, TB has yet to be eradicated. Further to a recent commitment by the Irish government to eradicate TB by 2030, this paper considers two questions, 'Can bovine TB be eradicated from the Republic of Ireland?' and 'Could this be achieved by 2030?', given current knowledge from research. Main body of the abstract Until very recently, Ireland has lacked key tools required for eradication. This gap has substantially been filled with the national roll-out of badger vaccination. Nonetheless, there is robust evidence, drawn from general national research, international experiences, and results of a recent modelling study, to suggest that all current strategies plus badger vaccination will not be sufficient to successfully eradicate TB from Ireland by 2030. We face a critical decision point in the programme, specifically the scope and intensity of control measures from this point forward. Adequate information is available, both from research and international experience, to indicate that these additional measures should broadly focus on adequately addressing TB risks from wildlife, implementing additional risk-based cattle controls, and enhancing industry engagement. These three areas are considered in some detail. Conclusion Based on current knowledge, it will not be possible to eradicate TB by 2030 with current control strategies plus national badger vaccination. Additional measures will be needed if Ireland is to eradicate TB within a reasonable time frame. Decisions made now will have long-term implications both in terms of time-to-eradication and cumulative programme costs.

中文翻译：

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可以从爱尔兰共和国根除牛结核病吗？到 2030 年能否实现这一目标？

背景 爱尔兰共和国的牛结核病 (TB) 一直在下降，但尚未根除结核病。继爱尔兰政府最近承诺到 2030 年根除结核病之后，本文考虑了两个问题，“爱尔兰共和国能否根除牛结核病？” 和“这可以在 2030 年之前实现吗？”，鉴于目前的研究知识。摘要的主体 直到最近，爱尔兰还缺乏根除所需的关键工具。全国推广獾疫苗接种基本上填补了这一空白。尽管如此，从一般的国家研究、国际经验和最近的一项建模研究的结果中得出了强有力的证据，建议所有当前的策略加上獾疫苗接种都不足以在 2030 年之前从爱尔兰成功根除结核病。我们在该计划中面临一个关键的决策点，特别是从这一点开始控制措施的范围和强度。来自研究和国际经验的充分信息表明，这些额外措施应广泛侧重于充分解决野生动物的结核病风险，实施额外的基于风险的牛控制，并加强行业参与。对这三个方面进行了一些详细的考虑。结论 根据目前的知识，通过目前的控制策略加上国家獾疫苗接种，到 2030 年是不可能根除 TB 的。如果爱尔兰要在合理的时间范围内根除结核病，就需要采取额外的措施。