AbstractWater, food, energy, and the ecosystems they depend on interact with each other in highly complex and interlinked ways. These interdependencies can be traced particularly well in the context of a river basin, which is delineated by hydrological boundaries. The interactions are shaped by humans interacting with nature, and as such, a river basin can be characterized as a complex, coupled socioecological system. The Niger River Basin in West Africa is such a system, where water infrastructure development to meet growing water, food, and energy demands may threaten a productive and vulnerable basin ecosystem. These dynamic interactions remain poorly understood. Trade‐off analyses between different sectors and at different spatial scales are needed to support solution‐oriented policy analysis, particularly in transboundary basins. This study assesses the impact of climate and human/anthropogenic changes on the water, energy, food, and ecosystem sectors and characterizes the resulting trade‐offs through a set of generic metrics related to the sustainability of water availability. Results suggest that dam development can mitigate negative impacts from climate change on hydropower generation and also on ecosystem health to some extent.

中文翻译：

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量化尼日尔河流域水-食物-能源-生态系统关系的水资源可用性的可持续性

摘要水、食物、能源和它们所依赖的生态系统以高度复杂和相互关联的方式相互作用。这些相互依赖性可以在由水文边界划定的河流流域的背景下特别好地追踪。这种相互作用是由人类与自然的相互作用决定的，因此，流域可以被描述为一个复杂的、耦合的社会生态系统。西非的尼日尔河流域就是这样一个系统，为满足不断增长的水、粮食和能源需求而进行的水基础设施开发可能会威胁到富有成效且脆弱的流域生态系统。这些动态相互作用仍然知之甚少。需要在不同部门和不同空间尺度之间进行权衡分析，以支持以解决方案为导向的政策分析，特别是在跨界流域。本研究评估了气候和人类/人为变化对水、能源、食品和生态系统部门的影响，并通过一组与水可用性可持续性相关的通用指标来描述由此产生的权衡。结果表明，大坝的开发可以在一定程度上减轻气候变化对水力发电和生态系统健康的负面影响。