Satellite charging is one of the most important risks for satellites on orbit. Satellite charging can lead to an electrostatic discharge resulting in component damage, phantom commands, and loss of service and in exceptional cases total satellite loss. Here we construct a realistic worst case for a fast solar wind stream event lasting 5 days or more and use a physical model to calculate the maximum electron flux greater than 2 MeV for geostationary orbit. We find that the flux tends toward a value of 10⁶ cm⁻²·s⁻¹·sr⁻¹ after 5 days and remains high for another 5 days. The resulting flux is comparable to a 1 in 150‐year event found from an independent statistical analysis of electron data. Approximately 2.5 mm of Al shielding would be required to reduce the internal charging current to below the National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐recommended guidelines, much more than is currently used. Thus, we would expect many satellites to report electrostatic discharge anomalies during such an event with a strong likelihood of service outage and total satellite loss. We conclude that satellites at geostationary orbit are more likely to be at risk from fast solar wind stream event than a Carrington‐type storm.

中文翻译：

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由快速太阳风流驱动的严重太空天气事件的现实最坏情况。

卫星充电是在轨卫星最重要的风险之一。卫星充电可能导致静电放电，从而导致组件损坏、虚拟命令和服务中断，在特殊情况下，卫星完全丢失。在这里，我们构建了持续 5 天或更长时间的快速太阳风流事件的现实最坏情况，并使用物理模型计算对地静止轨道大于 2 MeV 的最大电子通量。我们发现5天后通量趋向于10 ⁶  cm ^-2 ·s ^-1 ·sr ^{-1的值，并在接下来的5天内保持较高水平。}由此产生的通量相当于通过电子数据的独立统计分析发现的 150 年一遇的事件。需要大约 2.5 毫米的铝屏蔽才能将内部充电电流降低到美国国家航空航天局推荐的指导方针以下，这比目前使用的要多得多。因此，我们预计许多卫星在此类事件期间报告静电放电异常，很有可能导致服务中断和卫星全部丢失。我们的结论是，与卡林顿型风暴相比，地球静止轨道上的卫星更有可能面临快速太阳风流事件的风险。