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Magnetic Helicity as a Predictor of the Solar Cycle
Solar Physics ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-07-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s11207-018-1332-3
G Hawkes 1 , M A Berger 1
Affiliation  

It is well known that the polar magnetic field is at its maximum during solar minima, and that the behaviour during this time acts as a strong predictor of the strength of the following solar cycle. This relationship relies on the action of differential rotation (the Omega effect) on the poloidal field, which generates the toroidal flux observed in sunspots and active regions. We measure the helicity flux into both the northern and the southern hemispheres using a model that takes account of the Omega effect, which we apply to data sets covering a total of 60 years. We find that the helicity flux offers a strong prediction of solar activity up to five years in advance of the next solar cycle. We also hazard an early guess as to the strength of Solar Cycle 25, which we believe will be of similar amplitude and strength to Cycle 24.

中文翻译:

磁螺旋度作为太阳周期的预测器

众所周知,极地磁场在太阳极小期达到最大值,并且在此期间的行为可以作为下一个太阳周期强度的有力预测指标。这种关系依赖于差动旋转(欧米茄效应)对极向场的作用,它会产生在太阳黑子和活动区域中观察到的环形通量。我们使用考虑了欧米茄效应的模型来测量进入北半球和南半球的螺旋度通量,我们将其应用于涵盖总共 60 年的数据集。我们发现,螺旋通量可以在下一个太阳周期之前最多五年内对太阳活动进行强有力的预测。我们还冒险对第 25 个太阳周期的强度进行早期猜测,我们相信它的幅度和强度与第 24 个周期相似。
更新日期:2018-07-01
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