Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.

中文翻译：

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改善气候变化影响模型中适应的表征。


适应气候变化是一个复杂的人类过程，充满不确定性和限制，现有的评估模型很难捕捉到这一点。由于缺乏对适应过程及其与模型的相关性的系统描述，改进模型表示的尝试受到阻碍。本文回顾了科学文献，以研究气候变化适应的概念和模型，以及改进模型中适应的表示的方法。审查表明，现实世界的适应性反应可以在多个维度上进行区分，包括意图或目的、时间尺度、空间尺度、受益者和提供者、行动类型和部门。然而，气候变化对土地利用和水管理的影响模型目前对这些维度的覆盖范围很窄，而是以人为和主观的方式对适应进行建模。虽然不同的建模方法确实捕获了自适应过程的不同方面，但它们是相对孤立地完成的，没有产生改进的统一表示。此外，适应通常被认为是客观的、有效的并且随着时间的推移是一致的，只有少数模型考虑了支撑适应措施选择的人类决策（14%）、激励行动的触发因素（38%）或可能限制其采用和有效性的时间滞后和限制（14%）。没有模型包括利用气候变化的有利机会进行适应。 基于这些见解，我们就未来模型开发的方向提出了可转移的建议，这些建议可能会增强模型的真实性，同时也加深我们对适应气候变化的过程和有效性的理解。