Purpose of Review

Dynamic manifestations of climate change, i.e. those related to circulation, are less well understood than are thermodynamic, or temperature-related aspects. However, this knowledge gap is narrowing. We review recent progress in understanding the causes of observed changes in polar tropospheric and stratospheric circulation, and in interpreting climate model projections of their future changes.

Recent Findings

Trends in the annular modes reflect the influences of multiple drivers. In the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to be a “tug-of-war” between the opposing effects of Arctic near-surface warming and tropical upper tropospheric warming, two predominant features of the atmospheric response to increasing greenhouse gases. Future trends in the Southern Hemisphere largely depend on the competing effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases.

Summary

Human influence on the Antarctic circulation is detectable in the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the poleward shift of the tropospheric westerly winds. Observed Arctic circulation changes cannot be confidently separated from internal atmospheric variability.

中文翻译：

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大气环流中体现的极地气候变化。

审查目的

与热力学或温度相关方面相比，气候变化的动态表现（即与循环相关的表现）不太为人所知。然而，这种知识差距正在缩小。我们回顾了在理解极地对流层和平流层环流观测到的变化原因以及解释气候模型对其未来变化的预测方面的最新进展。

最近的发现

环形模态的趋势反映了多个驱动因素的影响。在北半球，北极近地表变暖和热带对流层上层变暖的相反影响之间似乎存在“拉锯战”，这是大气对温室气体增加的反应的两个主要特征。南半球的未来趋势很大程度上取决于平流层臭氧恢复和温室气体增加的竞争效应。

概括

人类对南极环流的影响可以通过平流层极地涡旋的加强和对流层西风向极地的移动来检测。观测到的北极环流变化不能与内部大气变化完全分开。