Busseola fusca is a maize and sorghum pest that can cause significant damage to both crops. Given that maize is one of the main cereals grown in the worldwide, this pest is a major challenge for maize production and therefore for the economies of several countries . In this paper , based on the life cycle of B. fusca, we propose a mathematical model to study the population dynamics of this insect pest . A sensitivity analysis using the eFast method was performed to show the most important parameters of the model. We present the theoretical analysis of the model. More precisely, we derive a threshold parameter $${\mathcal {N}}_0$$N0, called basic offspring number and show that the trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable whenever $${\mathcal {N}}_0\le 1$$N0≤1, while if $${\mathcal {N}}_0>1$$N0>1, the non trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.

中文翻译：

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Busseola fusca 玉米害虫种群动态研究

Busseola fusca 是一种玉米和高粱害虫，可对两种作物造成严重损害。鉴于玉米是世界范围内种植的主要谷物之一，这种害虫是玉米生产的重大挑战，因此也是一些国家的经济挑战。在本文中，基于 B. fusca 的生命周期，我们提出了一个数学模型来研究这种害虫的种群动态。使用 eFast 方法进行敏感性分析以显示模型最重要的参数。我们介绍了该模型的理论分析。更准确地说，我们推导出了一个阈值参数 $${\mathcal {N}}_0$$N0，称为基本后代数，并表明当 $${\mathcal {N}}_0\le 1 时，平凡均衡是全局渐近稳定的$$N0≤1，而如果 $${\mathcal {N}}_0>1$$N0>1，非平凡均衡是全局渐近稳定的。理论结果得到数值模拟的支持。