Each month the JRC issues the MARS Bulletin detailing the agro-meteorological and expert analysis underpinning the assessment of European crops’ status and yield forecasts. In this context a resume is provided to give an overview on the geographical distribution of eventual crop damages. The MARS Bulletin provides such information in a set of synthetic maps (Areas of Concern), produced in each Bulletin, depicting extreme weather events and their impact on crops that have occurred in Europe during the analysis period. The present article describes the mix of quantitative and qualitative datasets and methodologies that drive the delineation of the Areas of Concern (AOC) maps and evaluates their capability to resemble crop production losses. The quantitative analysis is based on the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) indicators coming from meteorological models, crop growth models and remote sensing data. Indicators are considered in absolute and relative terms and in their relation with standard statistical metrics. The outcome of the quantitative analysis is a set of potential Areas of Concern. Experts’ judgment is thus necessary to discriminate potential results through a qualitative analysis focused on: past occurred events and climatologic conditions; agro-management practices; regional agricultural systems peculiarity and their historical resilience and resistance to adverse conditions. In this article the experts’ judgment of the team of current MARS analysts, as used in the AOC analysis, is translated into a warning index. Such index condenses the specific contribution to the final production of each development stage and the adverse agrometeorological events occurred, as depicted into the AOC maps. The warning index is computed at country scale for the past five agricultural seasons, from season 2011-2012 to season 2015-2016. Two crops are considered, winter wheat and grain maize as proxy for winter and summer crop groups. The warning indexes calculated are then compared to the national production in a qualitative way. To support the analysis few study cases are presented. The findings of this article highlight that the events depicted in the AOC maps are informative about production losses and specific knowledge is needed to full understand the information carried.

中文翻译：

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从极端天气到影响：关注区域地图在 JRC MARS 公告中的作用

JRC 每个月都会发布 MARS 公告，详细介绍支持欧洲作物状况和产量预测评​​估的农业气象和专家分析。在这种情况下，提供了一份简历，以概述最终作物损害的地理分布。MARS 公报在每个公报中制作的一组合成地图（关注区域）中提供了此类信息，描绘了分析期间欧洲发生的极端天气事件及其对作物的影响。本文描述了定量和定性数据集和方法的组合，这些数据集和方法论推动了关注区域 (AOC) 地图的划分，并评估了它们模拟作物生产损失的能力。定量分析基于来自气象模型、作物生长模型和遥感数据的火星作物产量预测系统（MCYFS）指标。指标是从绝对和相对角度以及它们与标准统计指标的关系来考虑的。定量分析的结果是一组潜在的关注领域。因此，通过定性分析区分潜在结果，专家的判断是必要的： 过去发生的事件和气候条件；农业管理做法；区域农业系统的特点及其对不利条件的历史复原力和抵抗力。本文将当前MARS分析师团队的专家判断，用于AOC分析，转化为预警指数。该指数浓缩了每个发展阶段对最终生产的具体贡献和发生的不利农业气象事件，如 AOC 地图所示。预警指数是在国家范围内计算过去五个农业季节的，从 2011-2012 季节到 2015-2016 季节。考虑了两种作物，冬小麦和谷物玉米作为冬季和夏季作物组的代表。然后以定性方式将计算出的预警指数与全国产量进行比较。为了支持分析，提出了一些研究案例。本文的调查结果强调，AOC 地图中描述的事件提供了有关生产损失的信息，需要特定的知识才能完全理解所包含的信息。