Abstract Research on gambling near‐misses has shown that objectively equivalent outcomes can yield divergent emotional and motivational responses. The subjective processing of gambling outcomes is affected substantially by close but non‐obtained outcomes (i.e. counterfactuals). In the current paper, we investigate how different types of near‐misses influence self‐perceived luck and subsequent betting behavior in a wheel‐of‐fortune task. We investigate the counterfactual mechanism of these effects by testing the relationship with a second task measuring regret/relief processing. Across two experiments (Experiment 1, n = 51; Experiment 2, n = 104), we demonstrate that near‐wins (neutral outcomes that are close to a jackpot) decreased self‐perceived luck, whereas near‐losses (neutral outcomes that are close to a major penalty) increased luck ratings. The effects of near‐misses varied by near‐miss position (i.e. whether the spinner stopped just short of, or passed through, the counterfactual outcome), consistent with established distinctions between upward versus downward, and additive versus subtractive, counterfactual thinking. In Experiment 1, individuals who showed stronger counterfactual processing on the regret/relief task were more responsive to near‐wins and near‐losses on the wheel‐of‐fortune task. The effect of near‐miss position was attenuated when the anticipatory phase (i.e. the spin and deceleration) was removed in Experiment 2. Further differences were observed within the objective gains and losses, between “clear” and “narrow” outcomes. Taken together, these results help substantiate the counterfactual mechanism of near‐misses. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

中文翻译：

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关于赌博未遂事件的反事实性质：一项实验研究


摘要 对赌博未遂事件的研究表明，客观上相同的结果可能会产生不同的情绪和动机反应。赌博结果的主观处理很大程度上受到接近但未获得的结果（即反事实）的影响。在本文中，我们研究了不同类型的未遂事件如何影响命运轮任务中的自我感知运气和随后的投注行为。我们通过测试与测量后悔/缓解处理的第二个任务的关系来研究这些影响的反事实机制。通过两个实验（实验 1，n = 51；实验 2，n = 104），我们证明了近乎胜利（接近大奖的中性结果）会降低自我感知的运气，而近乎损失（接近中奖的中性结果）会降低自我感知的运气。接近重大处罚）增加了运气等级。未遂事件的影响因未遂事件的位置（即旋转器是否在接近或通过反事实结果时停止）而异，与向上与向下、加法与减法、反事实思维之间的既定区别一致。在实验 1 中，在后悔/缓解任务中表现出更强的反事实处理的个体对财富之轮任务中的近乎胜利和近乎失败的反应更敏感。当实验 2 中预期阶段（即旋转和减速）被消除时，差点错失位置的影响就会减弱。在“清晰”和“狭窄”结果之间，在客观收益和损失中观察到了进一步的差异。总而言之，这些结果有助于证实未遂事件的反事实机制。 © 2017 《行为决策作者杂志》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 出版。