Abstract Aim Interspecific hybridization can promote invasiveness of alien species. In many regions of the world, public and domestic gardens contain a huge pool of non‐native plants. Climate change may relax constraints on their naturalization and hence facilitate hybridization with related species in the resident flora. Here, we evaluate this possible increase in hybridization risk by predicting changes in the overlap of climatically suitable ranges between a set of garden plants and their congeners in the resident flora. Location Europe. Methods From the pool of alien garden plants, we selected those which (1) are not naturalized in Europe, but established outside their native range elsewhere in the world; (2) belong to a genus where interspecific hybridization has been previously reported; and (3) have congeners in the native and naturalized flora of Europe. For the resulting set of 34 alien ornamentals as well as for 173 of their European congeners, we fitted species distribution models and projected suitable ranges under the current climate and three future climate scenarios. Changes in range overlap between garden plants and congeners were then assessed by means of the true skill statistic. Results Projections suggest that under a warming climate, suitable ranges of garden plants will increase, on average, while those of their congeners will remain constant or shrink, at least under the more severe climate scenarios. The mean overlap in ranges among congeners of the two groups will decrease. Variation among genera is pronounced; however, and for some congeners, range overlap is predicted to increase significantly. Main conclusions Averaged across all modelled species, our results do not indicate that hybrids between potential future invaders and resident species will emerge more frequently in Europe when climate warms. These average trends do not preclude, however, that hybridization risk may considerably increase in particular genera.

中文翻译：

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气候变化是否会增加欧洲潜在植物入侵者与其同类之间的杂交风险？


摘要 目的种间杂交可促进外来物种的入侵。在世界许多地区，公共和家庭花园里都有大量的非本土植物。气候变化可能会放松对其归化的限制，从而促进与常驻植物群中相关物种的杂交。在这里，我们通过预测一组园林植物与其常驻植物群中的同类植物之间气候适宜范围重叠的变化来评估杂交风险可能增加的情况。地点欧洲。方法 从外来园林植物库中，我们选择了以下植物：(1) 未在欧洲归化，而是在世界其他地方的原生范围之外种植； (2)属于以前报道过种间杂交的属； (3) 在欧洲本土和归化植物群中具有同源物。对于由此产生的 34 种外来观赏植物及其 173 种欧洲同类植物，我们安装了物种分布模型，并预测了当前气候和三种未来气候情景下的合适范围。然后通过真实技能统计来评估园林植物和同类植物之间范围重叠的变化。结果预测表明，在气候变暖的情况下，平均而言，园林植物的适宜范围将会增加，而其同类植物的适宜范围将保持不变或缩小，至少在更恶劣的气候情况下是这样。两组同系物之间范围的平均重叠将会减少。属之间的变异很明显；然而，对于一些同类物来说，范围重叠预计会显着增加。 主要结论 对所有模拟物种进行平均，我们的结果并不表明当气候变暖时，潜在的未来入侵者和居民物种之间的杂交会在欧洲更频繁地出现。然而，这些平均趋势并不排除特定属的杂交风险可能显着增加。