"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.

中文翻译：

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超越统计：风险评分的经济内容

对潜在交易进行评分的“大数据”和统计技术已经改变了保险和信贷市场。在本文中，我们观察到这些广泛使用的统计分数总结了更丰富的异质性，并且可能与应用它们的环境有关。我们使用来自医疗保险 D 部分的数据实证证明了这一点，表明风险评分混淆了潜在的健康和对保险的内生支出反应。然后，我们从理论上说明，当个人对合同有不同的行为反应时，即使在给定合同下存在“完美”风险评分的情况下，对奶油撇脂的战略激励仍然存在。