BACKGROUND Japan has a rapidly decreasing population, with ultra-low fertility and extremely fast aging. The rapid dynamics constitute a warning that change in the industrial structure may be unable to meet the changing pace of age-dependent demand. METHODS The present study estimated the supply-demand imbalance by industrial sector, and we investigated the effectiveness of possible countermeasures. To quantify the demographic burden of different industry experts, we employed the dependency ratio to calculate the supply and demand of each industrial sector and occupation. RESULTS We identified an expected excess of demand in the health-care sector; the growth in that deficiency is likely to continue until 2045, when the elderly population is likely to reach a peak. By contrast, oversupply is expected in the education and construction sectors. An overall shortage of full-time workers is likely to continue until 2050, when we predict that Japan will lack 3.1-9.3 million full-time workers to satisfy the baseline demand level. CONCLUSIONS Considering that the imbalance is evident over different sectors, interministerial regulation of occupational choice may need to be imposed, e.g., by drastically changing student sizes in different area of higher education. Japan may have to decide to downgrade its social services and potentially consider increasing immigrant workers.

中文翻译：

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日本超龄国家产业结构中的人口供求不平衡。

背景技术日本的人口迅速减少，生育率超低，并且衰老速度极快。迅速的动态警告着产业结构的变化可能无法满足年龄相关需求变化的步伐。方法本研究估算了工业部门的供需失衡，并研究了可能采取的对策的有效性。为了量化不同行业专家的人口负担，我们使用抚养比来计算每个工业部门和职业的供求关系。结果我们确定了卫生保健领域的需求过剩；这种短缺的增长可能会持续到2045年，届时老年人口很可能达到高峰。相比之下，预计教育和建筑行业的供过于求。全职员工的总体短缺可能会持续到2050年，当时我们预测日本将缺少310-930万全职员工来满足基线需求水平。结论考虑到不同部门之间存在明显的失衡，因此可能需要对部委的职业选择进行部际管制，例如，通过大幅度改变高等教育不同领域的学生人数来进行。日本可能不得不决定降低其社会服务的等级，并可能考虑增加移民工人。例如，可能需要通过大幅度改变高等教育不同领域的学生人数来对职业选择进行部际监管。日本可能不得不决定降低其社会服务的等级，并可能考虑增加移民工人。例如，可能需要通过大幅度改变高等教育不同领域的学生人数来对职业选择进行部际监管。日本可能不得不决定降低其社会服务的等级，并可能考虑增加移民工人。