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Sensitivity analysis in a multidimensional demographic projection model with a two‐sex algorithm*
Mathematical Population Studies ( IF 1.8 ) Pub Date : 1993-02-01 , DOI: 10.1080/08898489309525354
Peter Ekamper , Nico Keilman

"Formulas are derived for the effect that a slight change in the occurrence/exposure rate of the multidimensional projection model has on the elements of the population vector. The projection model classifies the population by sex, age, and marital status. The model includes a two-sex algorithm in order to ensure consistency between numbers of male and female marriages, number of divorces for the two sexes, and new widows (widowers) and deceased spouses. The sensitivity functions and elasticities are applied to data from the Netherlands for the period 1980-1984. The results indicate that marriage market mechanisms, in particular competition and substitution effects, are reasonably well modelled."

中文翻译:

基于双性别算法的多维人口统计预测模型的敏感性分析*

“推导出多维投影模型的发生率/暴露率的微小变化对人口向量元素的影响的公式。投影模型按性别、年龄和婚姻状况对人口进行分类。该模型包括一个两性算法,以确保男女结婚数、两性离婚数、新寡妇(鳏夫)和已故配偶之间的一致性。敏感性函数和弹性适用于该时期来自荷兰的数据1980-1984。结果表明婚姻市场机制,特别是竞争和替代效应,被合理地建模。”
更新日期:1993-02-01
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