Plant disease cycles represent pathogen biology as a series of interconnected stages of development including dormancy, reproduction, dispersal, and pathogenesis. The progression through these stages is determined by a continuous sequence of interactions among host, pathogen, and environment. The stages of the disease cycle form the basis of many plant disease prediction models. The relationship of temperature and moisture to disease development and pathogen reproduction serve as the basis for most contemporary plant disease prediction systems. Pathogen dormancy and inoculum dispersal are considered less frequently. We found extensive research efforts evaluating the performance of prediction models as part of operation disease management systems. These efforts appear to be greater than just a few decades ago, and include novel applications of Bayesian decision theory. Advances in information technology have stimulated innovations in model application. This trend must accelerate to provide the disease management strategies needed to maintain global food supplies.

中文翻译：

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利用病害周期法进行植物病害预测。

植物病害周期将病原体生物学表示为一系列相互联系的发育阶段，包括休眠，繁殖，扩散和发病机理。在这些阶段中的进展取决于宿主，病原体和环境之间相互作用的连续顺序。疾病周期的各个阶段构成了许多植物疾病预测模型的基础。温度和湿度与疾病发展和病原体繁殖的关系是大多数现代植物病害预测系统的基础。病原体休眠和接种物扩散被认为不那么频繁。我们发现，作为手术疾病管理系统的一部分，我们对评估预测模型的性能进行了广泛的研究。这些努力似乎比几十年前还要大，并包括贝叶斯决策理论的新颖应用。信息技术的进步刺激了模型应用的创新。这种趋势必须加快，以提供维持全球粮食供应所需的疾病管理战略。