We investigate the potential success of the human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine, taking into consideration possible waning immunity and the influence of behavioural parameters. We use a compartmental, population-level ordinary differential equation (ODE) model. We find the effective reproductive value for HPV, R0e, which measures the threshold for infection outbreak in a population that is not entirely susceptible, together with infection prevalence. We study the effects of different parameters on both of these quantities. Results show that waning immunity plays a large part in allowing infection to persist. The proportion of the population not sexually active when vaccination occurs affects R0e, as does the rate at which individuals become sexually active. In several cases, infection persists as a result of an infection reservoir in the male cohort. To explore this further, we introduce male vaccination and find the conditions for which vaccination of males could be considered appropriate.

中文翻译：

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HPV疫苗接种策略：男性疫苗接种会产生重大影响吗？

考虑到可能减弱的免疫力和行为参数的影响，我们调查了人类乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗的潜在成功。我们使用一个分区的，人口层次的常微分方程（ODE）模型。我们发现HPV的有效繁殖价值，[R0Ë，该指标用于衡量并非完全易感人群的感染爆发阈值以及感染率。我们研究了不同参数对这两个数量的影响。结果表明，免疫力的下降在使感染持续存在中起着很大的作用。接种疫苗后没有性活动的人口比例会受到影响[R0Ë，以及个人开始性活跃的速度。在某些情况下，由于男性队列中存在感染库，感染持续存在。为了进一步探讨这一点，我们介绍了男性接种疫苗的情况，并找到了可以认为适合男性接种的条件。