The series of mutations that cause brain cells to spontaneously and randomly die leading to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is modelled. The prevalence of AD as a function of age in males and females is calculated from two very different mutation models of brain cell death. Once the prevalence functions are determined, the number of people with AD in any country or city can be estimated.The models developed here depend on three independent parameters: the number of mutations necessary for a brain cell associated with AD to spontaneously die, the average time between mutations, and the fraction of the risk population that is immune to developing the disease, if any. The values of these parameters are determined by fitting the model's AD incidence function to the incidence data.The best fits to the incidence rate data predict that as much as 74.1% of males and 79.5% of females may be naturally immune to developing AD. Thus, the development of AD is not a normal or inevitable result of the aging process. These fits also predict that males and females develop AD through different pathways, requiring a different number of mutations to cause the disease. The number of people in the USA with AD in the year 2000 is estimated to be 451,000.It is of paramount importance to determine the nature of the immunity to AD predicted here. Finding ways of blocking the mutations leading to the random, spontaneous death of memory brain cells would prevent AD from developing altogether.

中文翻译：

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使用脑细胞损失的饱和突变模型来计算任何国家的阿尔茨海默氏病患者人数，该模型也可预测对该疾病具有广泛的自然免疫力。

对导致脑细胞自发随机死亡的一系列突变进行建模，从而导致阿尔茨海默氏病（AD）。从两个非常不同的脑细胞死亡突变模型计算出男性和女性中AD作为年龄的函数。一旦确定患病率功能，就可以估算出任何国家或城市的AD患者人数。此处开发的模型取决于三个独立的参数：与AD相关的脑细胞自发死亡所需的突变数，平均值突变之间的时间间隔，以及对这种疾病免疫的风险人群比例（如果有）。这些参数的值是通过将模型的AD入射函数与入射数据拟合来确定的。与拟合率数据的最佳拟合预测最多为74。对发展成AD自然免疫。因此，AD的发展不是衰老过程的正常或必然结果。这些拟合还预测，男性和女性通过不同的途径发展AD，需要不同数量的突变来引起该疾病。据估计，2000年美国患有AD的人数为451,000。确定此处预测的对AD免疫的性质至关重要。寻找阻止突变导致记忆脑细胞随机，自发死亡的方法将阻止AD完全发展。