This paper describes two related epidemic models of rumor transmission in an age-structured population. Rumors share with communicable disease certain basic aspects, which means that formal models of epidemics may be applied to the transmission of rumors. The results show that rumors may become entrenched very quickly and persist for a long time, even when skeptics are modeled to take an active role in trying to convince others that the rumor is false. This is a macrophenomeon, because individuals eventually cease to believe the rumor, but are replaced by new recruits. This replacement of former believers by new ones is an aspect of all the models, but the approach to stability is quicker, and involves smaller chance of extinction, in the model where skeptics actively try to counter the rumor, as opposed to the model where interest is naturally lost by believers. Skeptics hurt their own cause. The result shows that including age, or a variable for which age is a proxy (e.g., experience), can improve model fidelity and yield important insights.

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社论

本文描述了年龄结构人群中谣言传播的两种相关流行模型。谣言与传染病共享某些基本方面，这意味着流行病的正式模型可以应用于谣言的传播。结果表明，谣言可能很快根深蒂固并持续很长时间，即使怀疑论者被塑造成积极地试图说服他人相信谣言是假的。这是一个宏观现象，因为个人最终不再相信谣言，而是被新成员所取代。这种以新人取代旧信者是所有模型的一个方面，但在怀疑论者积极试图反驳谣言的模型中，稳定的方法更快，并且灭绝的机会更小，与信徒自然失去兴趣的模式相反。怀疑论者伤害了他们自己的事业。结果表明，包括年龄或以年龄为代表的变量（例如，经验）可以提高模型保真度并产生重要的见解。