Although substantial uncertainty typically surrounds the choice of the best model in most phylogenetic analyses, little is known about how accommodating this uncertainty affects phylogenetic inference. Here we explore the influence of Bayesian model averaging on the phylogenetic inference of the triggerfishes (Family: Balistidae), a charismatic group of reef fishes. We focus on clade support as this area has received little attention and is typically one of the most important outcomes of phylogenetic studies. We present a novel phylogenetic hypothesis for the family Balistidae based on an analysis of two mitochondrial (12S, 16S) and three nuclear genes (TMO-4C4, Rhodopsin, RAG1) sampled from 26 ingroup species. Despite the presence of substantial model uncertainty in almost all partitions of our data, we found model-averaged topologies and clade posteriors to be nearly identical to those conditioned on a single model. Furthermore, statistical comparison of clade posteriors using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test revealed no significant differences. Our results suggest that although current model-selection approaches are likely to lead to overparameterization of the substitution model, the consequences of conditioning on this overparameterized model are likely to be mild. Our phylogenetic results strongly support the monophyly of the triggerfishes but suggest that the genera Balistoides and Pseudobalistes are polyphyletic. Divergence time estimation supports a Miocene origin of the crown group. Despite the presence of several young species-rich subclades, statistical analysis of temporal diversification patterns reveals no significant increase in the rate of cladogenesis across geologic time intervals.

中文翻译：

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模型平均对进化枝后部的影响：以扳机鱼（Balistidae 科）为例

尽管在大多数系统发育分析中，最佳模型的选择通常存在很大的不确定性，但人们对适应这种不确定性如何影响系统发育推断知之甚少。在这里，我们探讨了贝叶斯模型平均对触发鱼（家族：Balistidae）的系统发育推断的影响，这是一个有魅力的珊瑚鱼群。我们专注于进化枝支持，因为该领域很少受到关注，并且通常是系统发育研究中最重要的结果之一。我们基于对从 26 个内群物种中采样的两个线粒体 (12S、16S) 和三个核基因 (TMO-4C4、Rhodopsin、RAG1) 的分析，为 Balistidae 家族提出了一种新的系统发育假设。尽管在我们数据的几乎所有分区中都存在大量的模型不确定性，我们发现模型平均拓扑和进化枝后验几乎与单一模型条件下的相同。此外，使用 Wilcoxon 符号秩检验对进化枝后验的统计比较显示没有显着差异。我们的结果表明，尽管当前的模型选择方法可能会导致替代模型的过度参数化，但对这种过度参数化模型进行调节的后果可能是轻微的。我们的系统发育结果强烈支持扳机鱼的单系，但表明 Balistoides 和 Pseudobalistes 属是多系的。发散时间估计支持冠群的中新世起源。尽管存在几个年轻的物种丰富的分支，